Cirium Predicts 45,000 More Efficient Aircraft Will Be Delivered By 2040

Air travel may have hit a bump in the road of continuous growth over the past two years. However, forecasts predict it will be right back on track in a couple of years’ time. On Thursday, Cirium released its Fleet Forecast 2021, which predicts that 45,000 new aircraft will be delivered over the coming two decades.

Airlines will welcome 45,000 new aircraft over the next couple of decades, Cirium says. Photo: Getty Images.

Numbers have increased since last year

Aviation analytics company Cirium has completed its fleet forecast for the year. According to its calculations, 45,000 more fuel-efficient aircraft worth $2.9 trillion will be delivered by 2040. This is 4% more than what was predicted a year ago, the report says, as well as compared to Boeing’s outlook released in September. 

Cirium expects single-aisle jets to make up 70% of all passenger aircraft deliveries over the coming two decades, accounting for 55% of the delivery value. The Airbus A320neo and the Boeing 737 MAX families are expected to make up 90% of deliveries. Meanwhile, new single-aisle projects from both manufacturers are forecast to be developed by the mid-2030s.

The dual-aisle segment will focus mainly on Boeing 787 Dreamliners and A350s. Widebody jets that fit 250 to 300 seats will account for 65% of the delivery value. Meanwhile, the A350-1000 and the 777-9 will battle it out for the highest capacity markets.

The Chinese and North American markets will account for 20% of new aircraft deliveries until 2040, respectively. Photo: Getty Images

Geographical statistics

China is set to be the largest customer globally, receiving 20% of all aircraft over the next 20 years. This will accommodate passenger traffic that is set to grow by 6%. These figures put China ahead of all other Asia-Pacific countries, which will take 22% of aircraft among them.

North American airlines are forecast to have a 20% share and European carriers 19%. The Middle East will only take 7%. However, the region represents 11% in delivery value due to the high number of widebody aircraft specific to the Gulf carriers’ business models. Latin America also represents 7%, Russia and the CIS countries account for 4%, and Africa 3%.

Aircraft deliveries remained 25% lower compared to 2019 levels throughout 2021. Although, this was a significant step up from 2020, which saw a 43% reduction. More traditional growth paths will return in 2024, the Cirium report stipulates.

Cirium is estimating nearly 20,000 freighters will be needed until 2040, most of which will come from conversions. Photo: Getty Images

Fleet modernization and freighters

In good news for the environment, about 80% of today’s passenger fleet will be retired by 2040. Overall, Cirium says there will be about 19,000 retirements when compared to fleets at the end of 2020, in addition to the phasing out of newer aircraft.

“Passenger traffic is predicted to grow annually at 3.7%, and so the global passenger fleet will be required to increase by almost 22,000 aircraft. If this forecast is realised, that would take the global passenger fleet to some 47,200 aircraft by the end of 2040. The aircraft deliveries that are predicted will not only meet the rising traffic demands but will also replace older less-fuel-efficient aircraft,” said Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy at Ascend by Cirium.

In line with the increased demand for airfreight, Cirium is projecting a need for 19,000 cargo aircraft over the coming two decades. Of this total, 30% are expected to be newly built freighters, whereas 70% will come about through conversions of existing passenger aircraft.

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